Thursday  October 3, 2025

Mohawk Analysis

Woodbine-Mohawk Park Racing Schedule

Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday | First Post 6:35 p.m. EST

Doug Henwood’s Picks

WOODBINE SB PICKS FOR FRIDAY
DOUG HENWOOD’S PICKS (The NumberCruncher)

 

Race 1

5-4-2-6

(#5) ITS NOT MY VAULT – here we go with another Friday night at Mohawk.  Let’s see if we can’t “mine” a few good ones from the raw data that is the program.  Here in the first, I’ve landed on ITS NOT MY VAULT even though it feels contrary to my own opinion.  2nd selection IBELIEVEINANGELS is the obvious one in here & she will be my other choice to get the Pick 5 started but ITS NOT MY VAULT simply shows consistent moves & the top adjusted closing quarter for this group with the 27.1 from Sept 2.  I’ll stick with the numbers & start the night with a likely value play.

Race 2

4-6-5-2

(#4) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO – file this selection under “you had to see it to believe it”.  After racing well at Rideau & having success at Mohawk last year, “MARGO” shipped in & faced better on Sept 19.  This was a formidable bunch last time & yet McClure had her emptying the tank with a FAST middle move that saw her move from 7th to 2nd very quickly.  That burst ended up doing her in once they turned for home & she faded into the night.  Drops here & it feels like a different approach from one of my favourites, Bob McClure should net an entirely different outcome…a winning one.   

 

Race 3

1-2-7-6

(#1) ALWAYS DAWN – I’ve been mostly on the bandwagon of this nice filly here in 2025 & she just keeps providing “nice” numbers to keep me onboard.  You could argue this is a slight jump in class but this looks like a group she can handle & once again she’ll rely on decent early position & then on her group-best 26 flat adjusted closing quarter from her last, to get the job done.

Race 4 

7-8-2-9

(#7) LAYDEE FREIGHT – this race reminds me of Race #1 in that I’m installing #7 LAYDEE FREIGHT on top even though it feels contrary to my own opinion.  Based on her last few races & the company she’s been keeping, SANGRIA SUMMER looks like the obvious one & once again, she will be my other choice for all my multi-leg tickets.  It’s not as significant, but LAYDEE FREIGHT also takes a drop & simply shows consistent moves & the top adjusted closing quarter for this group with the 26.2 taken Sept 15.  I’ll stick with the numbers again & acknowledge that I like them both as win candidates.

 
Race 5

9-2-6-1

(#9) MYRETIREMENTDREAM – drops to rock bottom here (or close) & will like the easier company.   MYRETIREMENTDREAM is tied as the best speed (56.4) & is one tick behind KADIDDLE’s group best 27.3 adjusted closing quarter.  KADIDDLE’s last 2 races are so bad, I’ll hedge & only rate her 2nd even with her good closing number.

 
Race 6
7-3-5-4 
(#7) AMERICAN HISTORY – after a questionable drive that cost me back on Sept 20, I gave driver Dale Spence another chance last time & he, and of course AMERICAN HISTORY, did not let me down as they cruised to an easy victory against most of these.  The point last time was that I just couldn’t ignore the significant drop then to take on these POP UP Series rivals.  That faith was rewarded & I need to stay with this duo here in the final.  AMERICAN HISTORY is not tops in either of my front half or closing quarter catergories but he did show us a +4 ½ middle move in his last which is a good indicator of driver confidence & a horse on top of their game, especially when they open up in the back half of the race.  Should beat these.

Race 7

9-1-2-7

(#9) ANGOSTURA HANOVER – this mare is quietly one of my favourites & it’s hard not to be impressed with the way she goes about her business week in & week out.  Tonight sees a drop in class which should be all that is necessary to pave her way to the winners circle.  That plus her group-best 26.3 adjusted closing quarter shown Sept 13.  She’s a hard knocker & definitely the danger in here.

 
Race 8

4-2-7-3

(#4) ROCKS SHADOW – I played this mare a few weeks ago as my “Deep Crunch” when she was  64-1 so it’s no surprise to me that he looks like the one to beat in this spot.  ROCKS SHADOW is in way easier facing this new POP UP series bunch & the numbers back up her class advantage.  She’s the best speed by over a full second (56 flat) & her 26.4 adjusted closing quarter places her only 2 ticks behind top closing pick COLD CREEK ESPERO & her 26.2.  I’ll play them both but I’ve got to rate ROCKS SHADOW as the top choice.

Race 9                                                                                                                                                                            

5-6-1-4

(#5) GUCCI SEELSTER – taken over last race by Team Cullen & the good times have continued to roll.  After some success in the Prospect Series its now all about finding a good spot for her next start &, per the Cullen’s, this $20,000 claimer with allowances seems to be the place.  GUCCI SEELSTER rates as the top closer in here with that 27.1 taken Aug 19.  The rail horse, ONEFORMYBABY looms as the danger but seems just as satisfied, so far,  just finishing in the money so as usual I’ll stick with the numbers & lean to the top closer.

Race 10

2-9-3-4-10

(#2) SUPERIOR DELIGHT – with 12 wins & 21/25 in the money in 2025 you’ve got to appreciate the job being done managing my selection, #2 SUPERIOR DELIGHT,  not to mention her talent & grit.  As a judges scratch last time in an OSS Grassroots event, the team has simply put her back where she has done so much damage, that being in these optional $20,000 claimers.  The group should be to her liking & she’ll use her 55.3 front half speed (tied as best with #10) & her 27.1 adjusted closing quarter which is only 1 tick behind her main competition, #9 GIMMIE A CORONA.  Gotta like her yet again in this very familiar spot.

Most Likely: R6 – #7 AMERICAN HISTORY

                                                                                                                                                                            

Value Play: R1 – #5 ITS NOT MY VAULT 

Deep Crunch: R5 – #2 KADIDDLE  

 

Early Pick 5 – 45/46/127/78/269 – $14.40 for 20 cents

 

Early Pick 4 – 127/78/269/357 – $10.80 for 20 cents

 

Pick 6 – 78/269/7/19/4/156 – $7.20 for 20 cents

Late Pick 5 – 7/129/247/156/29 – $10.80 for 20 cents

 

Late Pick 4 – 129/247/156/29 – $10.80 for 20