Friday, May 15, 2026

Mohawk Analysis

Woodbine-Mohawk Park Racing Schedule

Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday | First Post 6:35 p.m. EST

Free Programs – Woodbine Mohawk Park

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Doug Henwood’s Picks

WOODBINE SB PICKS FOR FRIDAY  
 

DOUG HENWOOD’S PICKS (The NumberCruncher)
 

 Race 1

7-3-5-4

(#7) WESTERN WISH – Happy Friday Night at Mohawk everyone!  Here in R1 we’ve got a talented veteran mare hitting rock bottom.  It wasn’t that long ago that WESTERN WISH was having success against much better & even recently she’s not been racing that bad.  She’s clearly the best speed in here with her 55.3 front half from that last race & her 27.4 adjusted closing quarter from May 2 is 2nd to only 15-1 shot #5 P L SUZIE.  This seems like one of those drop & pop ones where the veteran wins even if just on muscle memory.  

 
Race 2

5-4-2-1

(#5) LETS N JOY N – I noted a couple starts ago that when “a successful closer” starts to win on the front end, we better be taking notice.  That’s where we’re at lately with LETS N JOY N.  Not only has she scaled the class ladder all the way to the F&M Open but along the way she’s managed to trade in those closing wins for wins that have been gate to wire.  Obviously a sign she is in top, top form…duh.  Brings the best speed (55.3) & her 26.3 closing number from 3 starts back is 2nd best behind main threat, #4 ABSOLUTION.  Right at the moment they just can’t get past her so I’m looking for a repeat & win #10 from only 12 starts here in 2026!

Race 3

1-8-2-5

(#1) BREEZY BELLE – looks like just recently a private sale.  Leaving Tony Beaton barn & now with trainer Bo Ford.  I’m guessing Beaton needed some stall space and got $s he couldn’t refuse for the “to be determined” filly BREEZY BELLE.  The other side of that coin has a young filly with excuses in her only 2 starts, finally getting an inside draw & driver J-Mac moving with the filly confirming his support.  In her first start she never saw the rail but just missed & generated a 27.1 adjusted closing quarter.  That last race is a throw-away so her career starts here for me.  That closing number is 2nd behind #8 KISSEDBYASTRANGER from her last qualifier.  This one could go either way but I’m on Team BREEZY BELLE this evening.
Race 4

2-6-10-7

(#2) SAULSBROOK ROLO – man this is a deep bunch in this NW2 tilt at “the Hawk.  No wonder it’s hard to be successful here on “the big track”.  “ROLO” has been so gritty in her recent performances & beat a similar bunch last time. Note that J-Mac has moved on to a Gallucci trainee #10 COULD BE QUEEN.  Nothing wrong with that one but it looks like a “relationship move” by the well-connected James Macdonald.  SAULSBROOK ROLO offers us the best speed (55.3) and best closer number (26.2) from her April 24 start.  Nothing like a front/back selection back in at the same level with a great driver (Jamieson) & a good draw.  
 
Race 5
3-1-6-9

(#3) PIPERS LUNA- after a few starts to get acquainted with the “big oval”, #3 PIPERS LUNA has found her form & has been bringing it week after week.  The numbers say she’s the best closer in here with her 26.2 from April 24. She’s the 2nd great Manitoba bred on the card tonight, the other being #1 GRIT N GRACE in R2…both sired by the unheralded IM THE PIED PIPER.   Impressive stuff really.  It’s time for PIPERS LUNA to break through into that win column tonight.

Race 6
5-2-10-1
(#5) RYDER ROSS – played him last week when he had the 10 hole & he just got nipped at the wire.  That start generated the best speed number (56.2) for this bunch & his 27.2, also from that lone 2026 start rates as 2nd best in here behind both #2 BLUE TEN SQUARED & #10 AMICABLE.    I’m sure McNair will once again have him well positioned early & RYDER ROSS will be tough to beat here in start #2.
Race 7
8-6-1-5

(#8) SETTN A PRECEDENT – once again, I’m going back to my selection from last week.  SETTN A PRECEDENT dropped into this spot last time & McNair had her on the front early. She stayed there until mid-stretch then gave it up late.  Not a bad effort though from post 10.  Moves in a couple positions tonight & remains at this NW $2,500L4 level.  We are the best speed in here with our 55.3 so the front end should once again be ours.  LA MIKI N looms as the one to beat with the rail but hey, she’s not on her best form right at the moment.  We should improve a bit off last week’s effort so with a little better rating by McNair we can get it done here.

 
Race 8 
1-9-4-10

(#1) MY GIRL FRIDAY – hmmm a perfect 4/4 winner life to date & 2 massive qualifers sure seems obvious, don’t it?  Not sure how she fits into the qualifying conditions but that won’t stop me from playing her.  Oh ya, and she unleashed a 25.3 closing quarter in her Apr 27 qualifier & how often do we see that from a young 3YO filly?  I’m in.

Race 9
1-5-8-3

(#1) ALWAYS DAWN – one of my faves from 2025 (you all know the other one in here) and she has impressed me several time with her tactical speed.  Last week in her first start of the year she was in anything but a tactical position early but closed up from 9th & 15 lengths behind to finish only 4 lengths off at the finish.  Needs to be way more alert away from the car tonight & if she is, she slots in nicely in a battle of the speed vs the closers.  Her 26.3 last time was nice but I adjust that a couple points for a 27 flat.  Instead, I’ll use her 26.3 adjusted number from Oct 31 & note that it ties her with my other fave #8 CAVIAR N CRACKERS.  An alert drive tonight from Tyler Borth sets us up to challenge at a price.  Sounds good to me.

Race 10
8-4-3-7

(#8) CARRERA SUNSET N – Jerry Reed said it best with his 1971 hit “When You’re Hot, You’re Hot”   I’d been thinking for weeks, what’s wrong with CARRERA SUNSET N and it turned out that, as it often does, all she needed was a taste of easier company to get her going.  A win that night (May 1) was followed by a dandy closing 3rd place finish at this level last week.  In that race she generated a group-best 27 flat adjusted closing quarter (tied with #6 HP JOSEPHINE).  From the race prior she also shows us a 56.1 front half speed mark & that number is best for these.   It wouldn’t surprise me if “The Beat Goes On” – Sonny & Cher for the favourite in here #4 MADAM X but I’m happy to take a swing with CARRERA SUNSET N as she “Heats” up.  

 
Race 11
6-1-7-4-8
(#6) BLINDED BY DELIGHT – we close out the card with a POP-UP Series Final.  All the best ones from the eliminations have assembled & it should be a competitive final.  I had both division winners last week so I’ll have to make a choice & I have.  I’m giving the nod to #6 BLINDED BY DELIGHT. She’s the best speed (55.2) which will help her grab early position again and after cutting the mile, her closing quarter last time (27.3) is only 2 ticks off the best in here. I’m thinking she kept a tick or two in reserve then for now.  Certainly no gimmie but she deserves top billing.
                                                                                                                                                    

Most Likely: R2 – #5 LETS N JOY N

 
Value Play: R5 – #3 PIPERS LUNA

Deep Crunch: R9 #1 ALWAYS DAWN 

 

Early Pick 5 – 37/45/18/2610/136 – $14.40 for 20 cents

 

Early Pick 4 – 18/2610/136/2510 – $10.80 for 20 cents

 

Pick 6 – 26/36/5/168/1/1358 – $9.60 for 20 cents

Late Pick 5 – 2510/168/1/1358/48 – $14.40 for 20 cents

 

Late Pick 4 – 19/1358/48/1467 – $12.80 for 20 cents