Friday October 11, 2024
Picks by Doug Henwood “The Numbercruncher”
Race 1
5-3-6-4
(#5) SOLAR SOLUTION – Kelly Hoerdt is back & he has brought a bunch of his 4-legged friends with him. Hoerdt is one of the very best & always rates consideration starting right here. #5 SOLAR SOLUTION brings speed & a slight class edge over this group. Expecting a wire to wire score.
Race 2
5-6-2-4
(#5) TINA LA VIDA – going for 3 in a row & in top form at the moment. Showing big middle moves, outside journeys & yet she still is generating best closing quarter numbers vs the competition. Should be good for a repeat.
Race 3
6-2-4-5
(#6) TAHUYA PLATINUM – woke up in last when dropped into this level. Last race included group-best 29.2 adjusted closing quarter. Expecting another big effort & at a good price.
Race 4
2-3-4-7
(#2) CHASE ME FOREVER – drops back down in class and seems to have found a spot. Brings good speed & group-best 29.2 closing quarter back on Sept 20. Has three races in a row in 1:55 & change range. No one else here can match that. Deserves top billing.
Race 5
1-4-2-7
(#1) MAJOR WINKER – just missed in last off perfect 2-hole trip. Draws the rail again, has good gate-speed & closing ability so looks to duplicate that last effort and find the winners circle. 5 of 6 foes from that last race have returned for the rematch and the Fraser Downs passing lane will undoubtedly be a factor.
Race 6
2-1-6-5
(#2) ONE TOUGH BEACHBOY – looking for some “Magic” in here to be supplied by Serge Masse. He takes over for Therres on the two & Therres takes over for Molloy on the six. Subtle changes from one good driver to another might be enough to shape the outcome. Expect Serge to go right down the road and take no prisoners. Should be a blanket at the finish involving my top three selections. Really looking forward to this one!
Race 7
3-5-4-1
(#3) ITLL BE FINE – quietly has won 2 of 4 of these Preferred clashes over the past month. The big three return again so get a good seat for FRASER FRENZY 5. Serge Masse picks up the drive on #5 WHIPLASH SMILE and super-speedy RUM N RAISINS joins the party. With all the expected mayhem it could easily, again, come down to “the trip”. ITLL BE FINE will be close early and ready to unleash that 27.4 closing quarter, seen last time, to pick up the win in a photo. Don’t miss it!
Race 8
4-5-2-8
(#4) DILLON JAMES – one more good one from the very hot Rod Therres barn. Last race featured plus 5 middle move & 29.0 closing quarter. The combination of both factors indicates a horse racing right on top of its game. Expect more of the same tonight with DILLON sitting mid-pack and looking to get into the flow on the backstretch side. Should be tough again.
Race 9
4-1-8-6-5
(#4) MINNEKHADA JOE – woke up a bit in last & 28.1 closing quarter from that race surprisingly rates as best in tonight’s group. Add to that a key driver change from Dennis Johnston to Kelly Hoerdt & I realize opportunity may be knocking and at a decent price. Playing a few in the Pick 4 but let’s give JOE the nod and hope for a price.
Race 10
5-2-3-8-4
(#5) FARMERS BEACH – drops a notch and picks up Kelly Hoerdt to do the driving. Figures highly in speed & closing quarter calculations so let’s give him a slight edge over these.
Most Likely: R2 – (#5) TINA LA VIDA
Value Play: R6 – (#2) ONE TOUGH BEACHBOY
Early Pick 4 – 56/2456/23/1247 – $12.80 for 20 cents
Late Pick 4 – 345/45/1468/235 – $14.40 for 20 cents