thursday & friday racing 10 Pm (Eastern) post time
DOUG HENWOOD’S PICKS (The Numbercruncher)
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Race 1
3-6-4-8
(#3) DRAGONS ATTITUDE – here we go with another week & I have to admit that although I’m a big numbers guy, picks & results are being massively impacted by having the Alberta driving trio of Campbell, Giesbrecht & Hoerdt with us. Hoerdt has been pretty much a Fraser fixture & Giesbrecht is not driving Friday night, but Brandon Campbell especially, is clearly making every horse he’s been driving MUCH BETTER. That said, DRAGONS ATTITUDE looks poised for a wire to wire score to kick off the card. Nuff said.
Race 2
4-2-3-8
(#4) MASTER OF LIBERTY – you can see the clear improvement when she was dropped into the straight $10,000 claimers two starts back. Picks up Hoerdt tonight & her 29.1 closing quarter Apr 4 is best for this bunch. She’ll have good early position and duke it out with #2 STYLEBENDER for top honours.
Race 3
1-7-5-8
(#1) OPEN FIRE – sure looks like a 3-horse race between my selection & #5 ITSOVERWHENITSOVER & #7 WEDNESDAYS CHILD. OPEN FIRE benefits from the rail & Campbell will be sending him right down the road. He’s the best speed (58.1) & shows good enough closing quarters to get it done. Note trailing post #8 last time. I’ve been on the WEDNESDAYS CHILD bandwagon the last 2 weeks & my main concern here is post #7. Likely means she’ll be starting her move from further back than recent starts & that could be enough to limit her to a minor share.
Race 4
2-6-4-1
(#2) PLAY MISTY FOR ME – the Campbell/Kanak gravy train contInues. Been enjoying life as a new recruit in the Rebecca Kanak barn & with another inside draw, it looks like one more wire to wire score to me as the beat goes on…
Race 5
5-1-2-3
(#5) BEACH MYST – This is getting a bit ridiculous. I’m not sure if I’m a handicapper or just a lovestruck groupie. Here’s, yet another, highly likely winner from the Campbell/Kanak combo. Nice adjustment last time by Rebecca dropping BEACH MYST back to where she seems to belong. It’s so obvious let’s instead talk about a wild one to include in exotics & even your Pick 4’s. Believe it or not, #1 DANZIG TO DHARMA is 2nd best speed in here, best closer (27.4), drops in class & adds Allan Molloy. It’s unlikely that’s enough to take down the Queen but you can be sure she will be all over my tickets as I hope for a trip & an upset.
Race 6
3-4-2-7
(#3) WESTERN SUMMIT – there are some signs that this great Fraser race meet is actually winding down and that is true with the last card scheduled for May 2. That means that trainers and owners are looking for spots to squeeze out one more win purse before things wind up. Right here, WESTERN SUMMIT drops in search of just that. Best speed in here with a 57.4 half & with decent closing quarters & Marino has put his top guy (Phil Giesbrecht) in charge of getting her home. Looks like another wire to wire winner.
Race 7
5-6-3-1-2
(#5) GREY SEA – here’s the F&M Open & it’s a spread race if I’ve ever seen one. She’s no gimme but if you’ve been following along, you know I’m pumped to make GREY SEA my top choice. She is beauty and talent personified. That front end win last week from outside post #7 tells us she has reached peak form so why not again from tonight’s better post #5? Lots of others who seem to be rounding into form so this one is up for grabs.
Race 8
9AE-3-8-6-1-7
(#9AE) JOE RICH – if does draw in, looks like the winner. Drops & easily best speed. One tick off best adjusted closing quarter (29.2). If doesn’t draw in, then let’s take a big swing with #3 OUTLAWSTORMYWETHER. Last 2 starts are much improved. 2nd best speed & 29.3 closing quarter works with this kind. Molloy jumps on. Sitting on best effort.
Most Likely: R5 – #5 BEACH MYST
Value Play: R2 – #4 MASTER OF LIBERTY
Deep Crunch: R8 – #3 OUTLAWSTORMYWETHER
Early Pick 4 – 234/157/246/15 – $10.80 for 20 cents
Early Pick 4 – 24/17/26/5 – $8.00 for $1
Late Pick 4 – 15/34/123456/3689AE – $14.40 for 20 cents
Late Pick 4 – 5/3/123456/389AE – $12.00 for $1
Value Play: R9 – #4 BAY STREET BUDDY
Deep Crunch: R8 – #1 ARA YOU CRAZY
Early Pick 4 – 356/345/1346/15 – $14.40 for 20 cents
Early Pick 4 – 3/345/1346/5 – $12.00 for $1
Late Pick 4 – 345/35/1369AE/234 – $10.80 for 20 cents
Late Pick 4 – 4/35/1369AE/234 – $18.00 for $1
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