DOUG HENWOOD’S PICKS (The Numbercruncher)
Friday, May 2, 2025
Race 1
6-5-2-1
(#6) LOADED DRAGON – hello racing fans, welcome to the last edition of FRASER FRIDAY but just for this spring meet. Whew! Like last night, we’ve got 10 BIG RACES to enjoy & navigate so let’s get this party started! Here in the first, a couple of good ones #5 ARA YOU CRAZY & #6 LOADED DRAGON take that class drop in search of travelin’ money. The deadly Kanak/Campbell combo is well-documented & while they may have slowed down (slightly) they look good in here off the drop. I’ll take the droppers in an exactor box please and give a slight edge to LOADED DRAGON off the 28.3 adjusted closing quarter taken in his last.
Race 2:
6-3-2-7
(#6) STAINLESS STEEL – caught up in a real speed battle last time as he carved out fast fractions of 27.1 & 56.3. There are never any guarantees except Brandon launching STAINLESS STEEL for front-end position once again. 2 starts ago Hudon & BIG N SHINY played hardball when they had the rail & it had a big impact on the results so who’s to say how things will play out tonight. STAINLESS STEEL will be tough if he clears but if not, we better spread to include some others as we start the early Pick 4.
Race 3:
3-1-6-2
(#3) KEY DRAGON– no matter what, one thing is for certain. After losing 7 straight races to TAHUYA DEVIL, KEY DRAGON must feel ecstatic to have drawn into the other $12,000 claiming division going tonight. This group is certainly not a gimme, but KEY DRAGON’s 27.2 closing quarter shown Apr 11 stands out in here. Rates top call but will have to deal with the super-hot DILLON JAMES moving up after 3 impressive wins.
Race 4
3-7-2-4
(#3) ITSOVEERWHENITSOVER – looked last time like Hoerdt tapped the brakes while going into the first turn. Perhaps chose not to go there from tough outside post #7. This time, his post improves & speedy OPEN FIRE has moved on. Tied as the best speed in here (57.4) & his 29.1 closing quarter is 3 ticks off top number from #7 BEYONDTHE HORIZON. That one moves down my ranking with the outside draw so top selection is #3 ITSOVERWHENITSOVER.
Race 5
4-7-3-5
(#4) MORE MONET – I feel kind of bad not backing my meal-ticket #7 TAHUYA DEVIL especially after relying on him week in and week out as my “Most Likely” selection. But hey, they don’t call me “The NumberCruncher” for nothing. MORE MONET shows the 2nd best speed (56.4) behind #3 PUREFORM MR TOFFEEs 56.3. TAHUYA DEVIL is 3rd with 57 flat. My selection has the best adjusted closing quarter with 27.2 which beats TAHUYA DEVIL’s 27.3. Oh, I know it’s going to be close but with the posts, perhaps this is the week that Brandon does NOT let TAHUYA DEVIL go. Either way this should be one more great battle between a couple of very nice standardbreds.
Race 6:
1-5-2-3
(#1) PICK UP STIX – there’s no mistaking the immediate improvement we saw last week when PICK UP STIX joined the John Boschman barn while also picking up Allan Molloy in the sulky. That first race together produced a 56.2 front half which stands as best in here by over a second. Considering that flash of speed, the 30.4 closing quarter is not too bad. I’m looking for Molloy to take this one right down the road, taking no prisoners and building on that great first start for the new team.
Race 7:
3-5-4-2
(#3) OUTLAW C MY SHADOW – what fun it was last week to give out this one as my “Deep Crunch” play of the card & then enjoy cashing the $18 win ticket. It’s been a long time coming but it looks like trainer Connie Kolthammer has one of my favourites back in peak form. If there was any doubt, when driver Tyson Jacoby quarter-pole popped on ITLL BE FINE, I could only smile. What a solid performance! OUTLAW C MY SHADOW is the best speed (55.3) & tied with best adjusted closing quarter with TZILACATZIN & ITLL BE FINE. He deserves top billing here in the Open Pace.
Race 8:
4-8-7-5
(#4) NOTHININMODERATION – got some good ones in here all clamoring for top prize from the purse of $5,200. SHOTS FIRED is speedy & capable but will have to deal with outside post #7, SUNSET RIDER is classy & well managed but will have to apply his natural speed from trailing post #8. That leaves #4 NOTHININMODERATION with perhaps an opportunity to break through into the win column. Decent speed & perhaps with a 2-hole behind SHOTS FIRED as the goal, my pick then does show his top adjusted closing quarter for the group taken last time (28.2). I’m hoping for a Dave Hudon special featuring a patient 2-hole drive & highlighted with a strong finish through the passing lane to get up in the shadow of the wire. 
Race 9
3-5-4-8-2
(#3) LIVINONADRENELINE – do we have time for owner/trainer/driver Kevin Anderson to blow up the tote board one more time before we go? We do? Oh good! I’m looking at 7-2 on the ML but with back-to-back odds of 70-1 & 67-1 & no drop or no in the money finishes, where is that 7-2 coming from? No matter, in this group, with this post & with that very consistent Kevin Anderson closing mojo, I’m putting him on my ticket. He does possess the best adjusted closing quarter for the group with a 29 flat by the way. Even so, this is definitely a spread race for the late Pick 4 & I’ll be using 3,4,5,8.
Race 10
1-5-3-6-2
(#1) THEREALLKENTS – time to draw the curtain on another great race meet here at Fraser Downs. There’s one more horse in the back ready to take a bow & the numbers say its #1 THEREALLKENTS. BAY STREET BUDDY is the clear speed in here but THEREALLKENTS is the best closer with a 28.1 taken last time which was his first start at this level. Prior to that race he had to deal with the dominant TAHUYA DEVIL for 5 starts in a row & we have learned there is no shame in that. Should have good early position & be right there at the finish. Once again, I’ll need a few for the final leg of the late Pick 4. Fraser Downs: fun & challenging to the very end.
Most Likely: R3 – #3 KEY DRAGON
Value Play: R6 – #1 PICK UP STIX
Deep Crunch: R9 – #3 LIVINONADRENELINE
Early Pick 4 – 2367/136/237/47 – $14.40 for 20 cents
Early Pick 4 – 36/3/237/47 – $12.00 for $1
Late Pick 4 – 35/478/3458/135 – $14.40 for 20 cents
Late Pick 4 – 3/478/345/15 – $18.00 for $1