Friday, October 9, 2026

Mohawk Analysis

Woodbine-Mohawk Park Racing Schedule

Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday | First Post 6:35 p.m. EST

Free Programs – Woodbine Mohawk Park

woodbine.com/mohawk/free-programs

Doug Henwood (The NUMBERCRUNCHER)'s Picks

Race 1

5-4-1-3

(#5) ALCHEMY HANOVER – has successfully made the jump from Grand River to Mohawk.  2 good results in a row including a 26.4 adj closing quarter which ties with his rival in here, LYONS FIRSTBULLDOG.  Should be decided between those 2.

Race 2

2-1-5-4

(#2) SECRET SOCIETY – it’s a small but talented group here in R2.  My selection #2 SECRET SOCIETY looks like a great claim by trainer Jamie Copley.  We see nothing but great finishes in his last six starts since that shrewd pick up.  Numbers say right there in the mix but wide open too.

Race 3
1-9-2-5
(#1) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO – has come back in amazing form.  Got one of the best closing moves at the track & her 25.2 from her last race ties as best with #2 RHODENA BLUE.  We know MARGO will be moving when they turn for home.  Deserves top billing.

Race 4

5-4-9-8

(#5) MOLLYS ON FIRE – draws a little better & should bring lots of value.  That front end failed attempt in her last produced a group-best 54.2 front-half number so no wonder she got weary late.  With this post and a better rating, she’s capable of upsetting.  Shows (3) 26.4 adj closing quarters prior to that last speed mission & that rates 2nd best, 2 ticks behind #4 MCBUBBLES.
Race 5
1-4-3-7
(#1) LONGSHOT PANIC – drops tonight, Jamieson gets along with this guy & that 27 flat closing number from two starts back is the top mark for this bunch.  The one to beat.
Race 6
5-8-4-1
(#5) LYONS MOONSHADOW – took a couple starts to acclimatize to Mohawk & this NW3 level but last time produced a beauty.  His 26.2 adj closing quarter    (Sept 19) is a group- best.  LPR may be more aggressive tonight but regardless, I expect another big effort. 
Race 7
9-3-4-8
(#9) TAMARA HANOVER – Louis was on a mission last time.  He just kept asking & TAMARA HANOVER just kept giving.  Gave ground grudgingly to finish a bang-up 2nd.  Tied as best speed in here (54.1) & I’m expecting another quest for the top, even from the 9-hole.  Capable of going all the way.
 
Race 8 
2-1-10-5
(#2) DISTANCE LEARNING – has faced most of the best trotters on the circuit for several years.  Not great lately, against better but check out those tough posts.  Drops & has found a spot to get back some of her mojo.  Should be very tough.
 
Race 9
6-2-7-1

(#6) ABSOLUTION – one step below the F&M Open but you wouldn’t know it by the names fighting for this nice $33,000 purse.  Gotta stick with ABSOLUTION in this spot.  Does escape some of the tigers and gives her all every time. Capable of a gate to wire win but equally good from off the pace,  Her 26 flat adj closing quarter is only 2nd best in here, 1 tick behind the top mark provided by #2 SENSATIONALIZE A.  Still, ABSOLUTION deserves a slight nod IMO.

 
Race 10
3-7-4-9

(#3) BLACK BULLET – I don’t really like anyone in here too much so I’ll take a small swing in search of some value.  BLACK BULLET showed up in September from The Meadows & has faced two groups that are better than these.  So, with the drop in class tonight, & the improvement I see from race 1 to 2, I’m onboard.  Definitely showed more speed in R2, even from the rail so, in this spot, I expect Cullen to be asking for even more & a gate to wire score is not impossible at a price.  

 
Race 11
5-3-10-1-2
(#5) BUBBLE LOU – nice Mohawk debut Oct 2.  That 27 flat closing number is the best for this group.  Jamieson takes over for Cullen who leaves to drive his own.
 
Most Likely: R3 – #1 MARGOSGOTTHECARGO
 
Value Play: R5 – #1 LONGSHOT PANIC 

Deep Crunch: R4 #5 MOLLYS ON FIRE 

Early Pick 5 –45/125/19/4589/14 – $19.20 for 20 cents

Early Pick 4 – 19/4589/14/458 – $9.60 for 20 cents

Pick 6 – 45/1/58/39/2/267 – $4.80 for 20 cents


Late Pick 5 – 58/349/2/267/347 – $10.80 for 20 cents

Late Pick 4 – 1210/267/347/35 – $10.80 for 20 cents